PANDEMIC , HERE???!!! WHOA, JUST A MINUTE!

As a proud alum of both Harvard and Johns Hopkins Schools of Public Health, I think I have been taught by the best to think information and issues through while not deserting 'common' sense.
The current level of alarm in the general population regarding the Swine Flu colloquially known as H1N1 seems unwarranted at the very least. Why?

A little research into influenza in the United States reveals that there are 200,000 hospitalizations and 36,000 Americans die annually from Influenza related complications. If that is the case and according to the CDC it is, 20 times more people died in the US this flu season than have died in Mexico during this 'epidemic'.
Also the people who have died in Mexico have been a small percentage of the people who actually contracted the virus down there. In fact so many people got the virus that there is increasing immunity there and the numbers of new cases are decreasing.

Initially, as I understand it from a top official from the CDC, it was only the cases that were hospitalized that got tested. As a result it looked as if everyone who had it was dying. whereas in truth it was only the sickest of the sick who were in hospital.

When you add to this, the fact that most people in Mexico do not get vaccinated against any flu viruses and that the nutritional status of the average Mexican is not as good as that of the average American one starts to wonder if the label 'Pandemic' might not have been a little hasty.

And then there's this new nomenclature for Swine Flu: 'H1N1' which sounds more high tech and
sci-fi than Porcine Influenza but actually the predominant Influenza A strain in this country during the 2006 -2007 season was a H1N1 virus just a different strain.

I could continue on with the science but I wont except to point out one more fact and that is that a person who contracts influenza A is most contagious for the first 4 days, lasting at most for a week after they develop symptoms. Do not be afraid of people who were in Mexico at Easter!

A group of 27 high school students in Colorado were apparently asked not to attend their high school graduation because they had been on a senior trip to Mexico. None of them were sick!

The point of this blog is the following:
let's not generate panic and deflect resources where they are not needed.
The strain of Influenza isolated so far is no more virulent than the strain that circulated here this winter. This is good news. We can anticipate far less morbidity and mortality from this Flu than we have in the average Flu season yet we don't close entire schools every time a student comes down with the Flu.

Hand washing and the other preventive measures I mentioned in my prior Blogs should make us all feel a lot safer. Its amazing how often the best solution is a low tech one with all due respect to my esteemed colleagues.
I would be interested to read your comments

As Always Stay Healthy.
Add years to your life and life to your years!

Dr Tuakli

Don't drink from that cup!

The latest (as of this morning) confirmed figure of cases of H1N1 (swine flu) in Maryland is 9, I have no doubt that it will be higher by this evening.

Try not to take young children into crowded places, this is not the best time to go to the ball game with them. Avoid crowded malls and shows.

If you are Catholic you should skip communion, it is not a good idea right now to drink from a common cup!

Remember hand washing is your best defense. Children cannot help touching everything, so keep them safe!

Be healthy

Dr Tuakli